Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

 

Authors
Fullman, Nancy; Barber, Ryan M; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M; Abd-Allah, Foad; Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rizwan; Abdulle, Abdishakur M; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adetokunboh, Olatunji; Afshin, Ashkan; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Eddine Aichour, Miloud Taki; Aichour, Amani Nidhal; Aichour, Ibtihel; Aiyar, Sneha; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akseer, Nadia; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alasfoor, Deena; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Christine; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amini, Erfan; Ammar, Walid; Ansari, Hossein; T Antonio, Carl Abelardo; Anwari, Palwasha; Arora, Megha; Artaman, Al; Aryal, Krishna Kumar; Asayesh, Hamid; Weldegebreal Asgedom, Solomon; Assadi, Reza; Atey, Tesfay Mehari; Atre, Sachin R; Avila-Burgos, Leticia; Arthur Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G; Awasthi, Ashish; Azzopardi, Peter; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Bannick, Marlena S; Barac, Aleksandra; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L; Bärnighausen, Till; Barrero, Lope H; Basu, Sanjay; Battle, Katherine E; Baune, Bernhard T; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Béjot, Yannick; Bell, Michelle L; Bennett, Derrick A; Bennett, James R; Bensenor, Isabela M; Berhane, Adugnaw; Berhe, Derbew Fikadu; Bernabé, Eduardo; Demtsu Betsu, Balem; Beuran, Mircea; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhansali, Anil; Bhatt, Samir; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan; Bikbov, Boris; Bilal, Arebu I; Birungi, Charles; Biryukov, Stan; Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie; Blosser, Christopher D; Boneya, Dube Jara; Bose, Dipan; Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R; Brauer, Michael; Breitborde, Nicholas JK; Brugha, Traolach S; Bulto Bulto, Lemma Negesa; Butt, Zahid A; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Cameron, Ewan; Campuzano, Julio Cesar; Carabin, Hélène; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Carter, Austin; Casey, Daniel C; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castro, Ruben Estanislao; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cercy, Kelly; Chang, Hsing-Yi; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charlson, Fiona J; Chew, Adrienne; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Chitheer, Abdulaal A; Christensen, Hanne; Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas; Cirillo, Massimo; Cooper, Cyrus; Criqui, Michael H; Cromwell, Elizabeth A; Crump, John A; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; Neves, José das; Davitoiu, Dragos V; de Courten, Barbora; De Steur, Hans; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Degenhardt, Louisa; Deiparine, Selina; Deribe, Kebede; Gabrielle, A deVeber; Ding, Eric L; Djalalinia, Shirin; Phuc Do, Huyen; Dokova, Klara; Doku, David Teye; Donkelaar, Aaron van; Ray Dorsey, E; Driscoll, Tim R; Dubey, Manisha
Format
Article
Status
publishedVersion
Description

Background The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.
Background The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.

Publication Year
2017
Language
eng
Topic
SDG
UN’s
QR 31·9–66·8
Repository
RI INDICASAT
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https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X
http://repositorio-indicasat.org.pa/handle/123456789/221
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openAccess
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